Fallacies & Reasoning Errors

A conclusion can sound convincing even when the reasoning behind it is weak. Fallacies and reasoning errors help explain how that happens: we overlook missing information, give a good story too much weight, or judge evidence differently depending on whether we like the answer.

The topics here include confirmation bias, probability errors, and survivorship bias. That last one is easy to see in advice drawn only from successful businesses. To understand whether the advice works, we'd also need to know what happened to the businesses that followed it and failed.