What is Diffusion of innovations?
Diffusion of innovations is Everett Rogers’ theory explaining how new ideas, technologies, and practices spread through populations over time. Adoption follows an S-curve, with innovators adopting first, followed by early adopters, early majority, late majority, and laggards.
How it works
The rate of diffusion depends on five characteristics of the innovation: relative advantage (is it better than what exists?), compatibility (does it fit existing values?), complexity (is it easy to understand?), trialability (can you try it first?), and observability (can others see the results?). Geoffrey Moore’s ‘chasm’ concept identifies the critical gap between early adopters and the early majority, where many innovations fail.
Applied example
Smartphone adoption followed the classic S-curve: tech enthusiasts bought the first iPhones, early adopters followed, then a tipping point was reached when apps and network effects made the product compelling for the mainstream majority, and finally holdouts switched when flip phones became impractical.
Why it matters
Diffusion theory helps product teams and policymakers predict adoption rates and identify which barriers to address at each stage of the adoption lifecycle.
