Motivating Uncertainty Effect

What is the motivating-uncertainty effect?

The motivating-uncertainty effect is greater investment in pursuing an uncertain reward than a certain one under particular conditions. It is not a general benefit of insecurity or ambiguity.

A real-reward experiment

Shen, Fishbach, and Hsee (2015) reported four studies. In Study 4, participants bid for chocolate coins. Each auction offered either five coins for certain or an equal chance of three or five. The uncertain option’s expected quantity was (0.5 × 3) + (0.5 × 5) = four coins, versus five for the certain option.

Process versus outcome

Some participants were encouraged to enjoy the auction, focusing attention on the pursuit process. Others were told the auctions offered a way to obtain coins at a good price, emphasizing the outcome. A control group received neither extra instruction.

The process and control groups bid more for uncertain rewards; the outcome group bid less. Thus, uncertainty’s effect depended on attention during the task. Willingness to pay was the resource-investment measure here—not evidence that uncertain pay improves workplace performance or that uncertainty always makes a reward more desirable.