False Consensus Effect

What is the False Consensus Effect?

The false consensus effect is the tendency to judge your own choices or opinions as more common than people with different choices or opinions judge them to be. It is often described as overestimating how widely your views are shared.

An example of false consensus

You support a policy and think many people agree. Someone who opposes it gives a lower estimate of support. That difference can illustrate the effect even if neither of you thinks a majority agrees. It concerns estimates of how common a response is, not just claims that “everyone thinks like me.”

What the research shows

Ross, Greene and House (1977) found this difference in estimates of commonness across four studies. Later, Krueger and Clement (1994) found that consensus bias could persist despite education, feedback and statistical information in their experiments.

Why it matters

Your own response is readily available, but it is only one response. Representative information about the relevant population is a better starting point for estimating what others think. Knowing the name of the bias does not make your estimate accurate.

False consensus vs. false uniqueness

False uniqueness bias concerns underestimating how widely your qualities or behavior are shared.