Belief updating

What is belief updating?

Belief updating is revising a belief when new information becomes available. It can involve changing a probability estimate, accepting a different explanation, or adjusting confidence. The term does not imply that the revision is accurate or biased.

Research example

In Sharot and colleagues’ 2011 study, participants estimated their chances of adverse life events, saw population-level frequencies, and revised their estimates. They updated more toward desirable than undesirable information in that task.

Is optimistic updating necessarily a bias?

Shah and colleagues’ 2016 critique argued that features of the task and analysis can create apparent optimistic updating. This debate makes it important to specify the information, prior belief, and comparison standard before labeling an update biased.

Application

Suppose you hear that an event is less common than you thought and revise your estimate downward. That is belief updating. Whether the change is reasonable depends on what the new information tells you about your own situation and how reliable it is.

Compare the information with the belief it is meant to change. A population average and an individual risk estimate are not the same thing.