What is Affective Forecasting?
Affective forecasting is a psychological concept that refers to our predictions about future emotional states. These are the anticipations we make about how certain situations, decisions, or events will make us feel. This process plays a critical role in human decision-making and behavior, as these emotional forecasts guide our choices and actions. Despite its importance, research has found that individuals often have inaccuracies in affective forecasting, tending to overestimate the impact and duration of future emotional responses, a phenomenon known as “impact bias”. Understanding affective forecasting can provide important insights into how people make decisions and plan for the future.
Examples of Affective Forecasting
In major life decisions such as choosing a career, getting married, or buying a house, affective forecasting plays a critical role. People anticipate how these choices will impact their future emotional well-being and make decisions based on these predictions.
When planning an event such as a party or a holiday, people use affective forecasting to predict how the event will make them and others feel. This can influence decisions about the location, guest list, and activities of the event.
In the realm of consumer behavior, affective forecasting influences purchasing decisions. Consumers often predict how a product or service will make them feel in the future, and this anticipated emotion influences their willingness to purchase and use the product or service.