Affective Forecasting

What is affective forecasting?

Affective forecasting means predicting how you will feel in the future. You do it when imagining a new career, buying a house, planning a holiday, or deciding whether a purchase will make you happy.

Where predictions go wrong

Wilson and Gilbert (2005) review a common error called impact bias: overestimating how intense an emotional response will be or how long it will last. Their account also examines why these forecasting errors occur.

Overestimation is not the only possible result. Forecasts can be accurate or underestimate a reaction. The research concerns how predictions compare with later feelings, rather than a rule that people are always wrong about what will make them happy.

Why it matters

Anticipated feelings help guide decisions, from the guest list for a party to the career someone pursues. It is useful to separate the event you are imagining from the emotional future you have attached to it. That future is a forecast, and it deserves a closer look.